Daily Fantasy player Condia looks to be back for 2014 NFL Fanduel season

Daily Fantasy player Condia – who some suspect is a Full Time Player – is back on the Fanduel Leaderboard after 2014 NFL season week 1 at position 62 with 262 wins.

While I didn’t see him in the few games I played, it is fun to speculate on the work and return needed to Go Pro if indeed he (or she) is doing this and what kind of cash flow was generated in week one.

First, lets continue our assumption that Condia is successful in at least 61% of games entered which is about the minimum needed to have positive cash flow.  Fanduel posts only wins, so with this assumption Condia would have entered 262 / 0.61 = 430 games.

Entering 430 games is a bit of a labor as far as know this would require sitting on the web site and entering new games as they are created because of the Fanduel policy limiting users to single entry in 50/50 games.  I am sure that took a few days to complete, but not as much as last year as from what I can see in the lobby, business is way up.

If you saw Condia in games you played in week 1 – please send me the fanduel game link.  I will continue on the basis that he continued the pattern from last season on playing 50/50 games with a $5 or $10 entry fee.  Assuming equal participation in each, that works out to (215 x $5) + (215 x $10) = $3225 of entry fees.

Winning 262 of these games – again assuming equal participation – would have returned (131 x $9) + (131 x $18) = $3537 in winnings.  Condia would have netted $312 for one week of work.  OK, but not enough to live on I would think.

But what if Condia’s winning skill is higher – say 80% ?  And what if larger stake 50/50 games are being played – say a mix of $25 and $50 ? 

In this games, total week 1 games entered would have been 262/0.80 = 328.  Entry Fees would have been (164 x $25) + (164 x $50) = $12,300 .  That is a lot of coin to front.  Returns would be (131 x $45) + (131 x $90) = $17,685.  With these assumptions, Condia would have netted $5385 for his/her efforts in week 1.  And that is a good return.

You may also be interested in my Going Pro article based on Condia's fall 2013 record and my series on the mathematics behind picking the optimal daily fantasy teams Part1 Part2 Part3 and Part4 .

Happy Pickings !